i-site’s 2007 Election Files

HISTORICALLY, no candidate should be more popular in a province other than his own.

But results for senatorial candidate Juan Miguel Zubiri in the midterm elections show otherwise, following the same pattern as that in 2004 elections where President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo showed herself stronger in Cebu than in her home province Pampanga.

Based on documents from the Commission on Elections (Comelec), Zubiri appeared to be more popular in Maguindanao than in bailiwick Bukidnon. Zubiri’s vote-percentage share in all 22 towns in Maguindanao averages at 95.75 percent.

The results for Zubiri in Maguindanao are so high that in one town, Pandag, Zubiri posted a 100-percent voter-percentage share — of the 3,382 registered voters who actually voted, 3,382 voted for Zubiri. In another town, Datu Abdulah Sangki, 99.76 percent (7,920 of 7,939) of those who trooped to the polls voted for Zubiri.

These results largely differ from that of Bukidnon where even in Zubiri’s hometown, Maramag, only 84 percent of the voters cast their ballots in his favor. His highest based on initial results was seen in Kitaotao, where he got a voter-percentage share of 87.79 percent. (see table)

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INFORMATION technology expert, NGO activist and Halal secretary general Roberto Verzola is adding his voice to the growing number of naysayers who have questioned the credibility of election results in the Maguindanao provincial certificate of canvass (CoC).

Aside from the statistically improbable votes, anomalous voting pattern, and the election results from the town of Pagalungan, Verzola says that the Maguindanao CoC contains some “statistically impossible” numbers when it comes to the ballot fill-up rate.

The ballot fill-up rate corresponds to the number of senators listed on the ballot.

“As you know, the maximum number of senators you can vote for is 12,” says Verzola. “You write anything more than 12, that invalidates the ballot. But in several municipalities, you have (a) fill-up rate of more than 12. These averages are statistically impossible.”

The municipalities of Datu Anggal Midtimbang, Paglat, Ampatuan, South Upi, and Sultan sa Barangis all have fill-up rates above 12, ranging from 12.01 (Paglat) to 13.88 (Datu Anggal Midtimbang). (see table)

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ELECTION returns from 36 of 55 precincts in Pagalungan town in Maguindanao all the more cast doubt on the credibility of election results as reflected in the provincial certificate of canvass (CoC) heralding an incredible 12-0 sweep of the senatorial contest in favor of administration candidates.

The Pagalungan ERs, mysteriously set aside and left uncanvassed until only last Friday, show that all 37 senatorial bets did garner votes, contrary to the results in the provincial CoC submitted by provincial supervisor Lintang Bedol where 18 candidates received “statistically improbable” zero votes.

As far as voting pattern went, the Pagalungan voting results also more closely reflect the outcome of elections in the five other provinces of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, with Team Unity’s Jamalul Kiram topping the field with 2,732 votes. Kiram also led the senatorial race in Lanao del Sur, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi while placing a strong second in Basilan and Shariff Kabunsuan.

In the Pagalungan tally, TU’s Juan Miguel Zubiri was in seventh place, which is somehow consistent with his showing in the other ARMM provincial results: fourth in Lanao del Sur, fifth in Shariff Kabunsuan, sixth in Sulu, eighth in Basilan, and 11th in Tawi-Tawi. This only serves to further cast the three-term Bukidnon congressman’s first-place finish in the Maguindanao CoC, obtaining almost 100 percent of the votes cast, in a really suspicious light.

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(UPDATED) If only for the statistically improbable zero votes received by 18 senatorial candidates, including those from the opposition who enjoy high levels of public awareness like Panfilo Lacson, Benigno Aquino III and even Alan Peter Cayetano, Maguindanao’s election results ought to be held with much suspicion.

Compared to the poll results from the rest of the provinces in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), the outcome from the province is an anomaly. Why? Because even senatorial race last-placers Ruben Enciso, Eduardo Orpilla, Victor Wood, and Felix Cantal — virtual unknowns except for Wood — all garnered votes in Lanao del Sur, Shariff Kabunsuan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and Basilan.

And considering how the rest of Muslim Mindanao voted, Bukidnon Rep. Juan Miguel Zubiri’s emergence as top vote-getter in the Maguindanao polls is also suspect — in the same way that Luis “Chavit” Singson’s 194,242 votes (second to Zubiri’s) are, the former Ilocos Sur governor placing nowhere near the Top 12 in the canvassed results of the five other ARMM provinces.

Though he may be a genuine son of Mindanao, Zubiri wasn’t the top choice of his Muslim brothers and sisters outside of Maguindanao. As voting results clearly showed, it was Team Unity’s Jamalul Kiram who consistently took the top spot, losing out only to Genuine Opposition’s Loren Legarda in Basilan by 94 votes, and to fellow TU candidate Edgardo Angara in Shariff Kabunsuan. Kiram came in third behind Legarda.

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(UPDATED) As always, the devil is in the numbers.

More than six weeks after the May 14 elections, the controversy surrounding the Maguindanao elections has yet to be resolved. It all started with the supposed 12-0 shutout win of administration candidates in the province. This was followed by news of provincial elections supervisor Lintang Bedol saying that municipal certificates of canvass (MCoCs) were stolen, only to backtrack later by saying they were simply missing. Bedol himself went “missing” twice despite repeated summons from the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

Following the news of allegations of massive cheating in the province, the poll body ordered a recanvass of the results. The special body created to conduct the canvass had to resort to the second and fourth copies of MCoCs. The recanvassing of votes cast in the 22 towns resulted into a total of 195,823 votes for Team Unity candidate Juan Miguel Zubiri, and 67,111 for Genuine Opposition bet Aquilino Pimentel III.

While Pimentel remains ahead of the race, the latest tally today shows that Pimentel now only has a slim lead of 2,700. He earlier had a lead of 4,293; prior to the canvass, Pimentel was leading by 111,000. The results from Basilan, Zamboanga del Sur, Lanao del Sur, and towns Binan, Laguna and Bogo, Cebu will determine the 12th winning senator.

In Maguindanao, a look at the election results there reveals highly improbable figures and surprisingly high voter turnout.

Comparing the results from the “original” provincial certificate of canvass — which was set aside by the national board of canvassers — with the new set of documents shows unusual decreases and increases in the votes for certain senatorial candidates (see table).

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YOU can be forgiven if you slept through the May elections. There were hardly any surprises there, which in itself is rather disturbing, considering that may mean we now take violence as part and parcel of the process of selecting our leaders and legislators.

In a post-mortem on the polls that is the closing piece for i Report series on the May 2007 elections, Manuel L. Quezon III argues that the results show a return to “tried-and-tested themes in our political history.” As expected, the administration maintained its grip on the House of Representatives. But the results of the senatorial race, which is often considered as a referendum on the sitting administration, clearly show that the public is not pleased with the Palace.

Quezon highlights what he calls “signals” sent out loud and clear by the election results: “President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo lacks a national following; her machinery could not counteract the national tide; the public expressed itself firmly in favor of checks-and-balances between the executive and the legislative and between the two chambers of the legislature; the military itself, which resisted the call to decide matters in February 2006, also revolted against its commanders and voted as it pleased.”

Quezon spells all these out and more at pcij.org.

IT’S been said that “victory finds a hundred fathers, but defeat is an orphan.” This quote accurately sums up the fate of three Catholic priests who threw their hats — or habits if you will — in the political ring in this year’s midterm elections.

While Father Ed Panlilio’s electoral victory has been hailed as a triumph of good versus evil, and has even merited a statement from the influential Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines (CBCP), which welcomed the “exceptional” victory, not a squeak was heard about the fate of two other priests who ran — but lost — in the May 14 elections. Their names, much like their crusades, have faded into political oblivion.

Panlilio, who ran for governor, anchored his campaign on providing a “credible alternative candidate” for the people of Pampanga. The incumbent governor, Mark Lapid, has been accused of pocketing bribes from quarrying operations in the province, while the other candidate, Provincial Board member Lilia Pineda, has been associated with jueteng, being the wife of alleged gambling lord Rodolfo “Bong” Pineda.

Panlilio vowed to stop corruption and gambling in Pampanga. He won, despite being the subject of a smear campaign for allegedly fathering children with different women, a charge he vehemently denied.

In Occidental Mindoro, Father Ronilo Omanio’s gubernatorial bid seemed to mirror Panlilio’s: man of the cloth running for a local position, seeking to provide an alternative to long-time politician and incumbent governor Josephine Ramirez-Sato, and banking on the people’s sentiments against issues like mining and small town lottery.

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ALMOST everyone running for public office believes that a considerable sum of money is needed for a respectable campaign. But as several candidates in the recently concluded midterm elections are finding out, pouring tens of millions of pesos into an ad campaign is no guarantee of a win.

Of those included in the media research firm AC Nielsen’s list of top 12 ad spenders among the senatorial candidates, only four so far are among the Commission on Elections’ (Comelec) winning dozen. The number one ad spender by AC Nielsen’s count, Team Unity’s Prospero Pichay, occupies a far 16th slot in the Comelec list.

Some political strategists and analysts say that many of the candidates’ handlers simply misread the political landscape and thought people were still easily swayed by glitz and glamour. But Filipino voters have apparently wised up, and now look for substance in the people they will vote into office.

For sure, there are still those who fail to see the real persona behind a candidate’s media image. Experts say, though, that more and more voters have become discerning — or at least try to be — and now look for clues on what the candidate will eventually do once he or she is elected into office.

For ads to appeal to voters and make them consider a candidate, therefore, the basic ingredients would be resonance, believability, and relevance, say experts. And these, they say, should not necessarily mean a hefty price tag.

We hope the piece, as part of i Report ’s current series on Elections 2007, would help your readers look back at the elections in a new light — and perhaps reflect on how they arrived at their choices on election day.

Read on at pcij.org.

THEY say politics is addition, but in some cases, it brought division to families.

In Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro, three brothers slugged it out in the recent polls. Incumbent Mayor Aristeo Atienza, who is on his last term, ran for vice mayor, and chose his nephew, Dr. Hubert Dolor, as his running mate.

But Aristeo’s two brothers, Victor and Francisco wanted to succeed him. Failing to get his support, the two decided to make a go for it. The Dolor-Atienza tandem won.

The island town proved to be too small for the big Atienza family. The Atienzas are a family of 12 siblings, with Aristeo as the sixth, Francisco as the eleventh, and Vic as the youngest.

“Matindi ang mga panaginip nilang maging mayor, kaya ayan, mayor sila hanggang sa panahon lang ng kampanya (They have dreams of becoming mayor, and they were, but only for the duration of the campaign),” he says.

Aristeo downplays the rift with his brothers, saying it is common for relatives to squabble for elective positions in a town made up of just a few families. “In politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies,” he says. Still, he is ruling out Sunday lunches with the whole family.

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AS the canvassing draws to a close, complaints of poll fraud pile up before the Commission on Elections (Comelec). Just yesterday, progressive party-list groups filed a case against the entire board of canvassers of Zamboanga Sibugay for the “unusually and incredibly huge number of votes” in favor of two “party-list fronts” of the administration.

In a seven-page complaint filed before the Commission on Elections (Comelec), party-list groups Bayan Muna, Gabriela, Anakpawis, Kabataan, and Suara Bangsamoro said they found glaring irregularities between the certificate of canvass (COC) and the statement of votes (SOV) in seven municipalities in Zamboanga Sibugay.

According to the group, votes were tampered with by surreptitiously inserting another digit to make the original entry bigger.

Read the complaint filed against the Board of Canvassers of Zamboanga Sibugay.

For example, in Kabasalan, the Cooperative-Natcco Network Party (Coop-Natcco) only got 208 votes in the municipal COC, but the figures increased to 2,089 in the SOV by municipality.

Another “administration-backed” party-list, United Movement Against Drugs (UNI-MAD), supposedly got only 60 votes in the COC of Kabasalan; in the SOV, the figures were changed to 3,600.

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